Frigid weather drives highest energy demand of the winter so far

by Aaron Orlowski, Eugene Water & Electric Board

The sub-freezing overnight low temperatures of the past week have led to the highest energy demand so far this winter as electric heaters across Eugene struggle to keep homes and businesses warm.

Demand for electricity in EWEB’s service territory hit this winter’s the highest levels yet on Tuesday morning at 8 a.m., when overall demand hit 475 megawatts. Tuesday morning, low temperatures skimmed 20 degrees F in Eugene.

That level surpassed Monday’s peak demand of 469 MW, even though Mondays often bring higher demand as managers of commercial buildings reheat them after turning down thermostats over the weekend.

Surging electricity demand during this cold snap is a powerful reminder that in the Pacific Northwest, when temperatures fall, demand for electricity rises. In EWEB’s service territory, winter electricity demand surpasses summer demand because roughly three-quarters of homes have electric heating, while air conditioning is less common.

This season’s peak winter demand is higher than during last year’s notorious ice storm, when demand for EWEB’s electricity peaked at 448 MW on Jan. 12, 2024. During the ice storm, the power outages caused by the storm’s damage to EWEB’s electric distribution counteracted some of temperature-induced demand.

Peaks in the mid-400s are high, but still within normal levels for cold winter days. In the last five years, the highest electricity demand occurred on Feb. 23, 2022, when demand hit 483 MW at 8 a.m. That day, the overnight low temperature descended to 22 degrees.

But even that level of demand is well below EWEB’s all-time record, which took place on Dec. 9, 2013, when temperatures plummeted to -10 degrees F. That morning at 9 a.m., EWEB customers were consuming 557 MW of electricity, as heaters worked full-bore to keep homes warm.

“This cold spell – and every cold spell, including last year’s ice storm – shows us the inextricable link between weather and both energy demand and supply,” said Brian Booth, EWEB’s chief energy resources officer. “EWEB’s energy team is always assessing electricity demand and supply as we look ahead hours, days, weeks, months, years and decades. Our job is to keep the power flowing, no matter what Mother Nature throws at us.”

In the years ahead, as more and more customers electrify their heating systems, demand for electricity during cold snaps will only grow. EWEB predicts that energy demand will rise by 8% over the next decade, as more and more customers swap out their gas-powered cars for electric vehicles, and as industrial demand rises.

“These cold events test the reliability of our region’s energy supply,” Booth said. “To maintain the momentum of our region’s transition from burning coal and gas to relying on clean electricity, we need to keep that electricity reliable, whatever it takes. Without reliable electricity, people won’t switch to electric vehicles or electric heat pumps because of fear the power will go out when they need it.”

Customers’ January bills are likely to be higher due to the cold.

Since heating accounts for the majority of electricity costs in most homes, customers might notice a significant increase in their January electric bills.

Even a customer who maintains their thermostat at 68 degrees F could see their energy use rise by 75–200% as their heating system works overtime to keep their home comfortable. Smaller, energy-efficient homes or those with heat pumps fall on the lower end of this range, while larger homes or those with less efficient electric resistance heating, such as baseboard or wall heaters, fall on the higher end.

For example, a typical, weatherized home in Eugene – built in the 1950s–’70s and approximately 1,700 square feet – uses about 1,600 kWh per month on average. However, the seasonal shift from fall to winter brings dramatic changes in energy use. If that house uses inefficient electric resistance heat, the bill could more than double from around $111 in October to $272 in January.

“Heating accounts for about 50% of an average Eugene home’s annual energy use,” said Matt Lutter, an energy specialist at EWEB. “But in winter, it can climb to 60–70% or more of a monthly bill. And I’ve even seen some customers’ energy usage increase tenfold from October to January.”

To help customers reduce energy use and lower bills, EWEB offers rebates and zero-interest loans for energy-efficient upgrades. These programs are designed to make energy efficiency accessible to everyone, with enhanced rebates and loans available for income-qualifying households and rental properties.

Rebates of $800 for a ductless heat pump and $1 per square foot of insulation are available for everyone. Meanwhile, limited-income customers are eligible for a $4,500 rebate for a ductless heat pump and 100% cost coverage for insulation.

EWEB is studying options to bolster future energy supply.

To ensure EWEB continues to have a reliable, affordable and environmentally responsible supply of electricity for decades to come, the customer-owned utility conducts long-term energy supply planning.

In 2023, EWEB published its first such study in a decade. EWEB concluded that the foundation of EWEB’s energy supply should continue to be the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), a federal agency that sells power from dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. But BPA is changing the energy “products” that it offers, and EWEB will need to choose a new one in 2025.

So, for the last year, EWEB has conducted analysis to see which of the new products best meets the utility’s energy needs. Regardless of which product EWEB chooses, the utility will use a combination of its own resources and BPA energy product to meet customers’ needs and contribute towards overall grid reliability.

The crux of the decision comes down to who will meet the energy needs of EWEB’s customers on the highest demand days for the next 20 years. Those peak demand days typically coincide with the coldest days of the year.

BPA offers different levels of service to utilities like EWEB. In essence, EWEB must choose how it will meet peak demand: The utility can either take a do-it-yourself approach or rely on BPA.

One option is for EWEB to pay BPA a premium to always meet EWEB’s peak demand, no matter how high it gets. The other option is for EWEB to continue meet its own peaks, while paying a lower price for the other energy that BPA sells.

“Hydropower from BPA is the foundation of our energy supply portfolio and will continue to be as long as BPA maintains its position as a cost-effective provider of carbon-free power from the federal hydropower system,” said Ben Ulrich, the lead energy resource analyst who is overseeing the study of the BPA product options. “But we have a nuanced, difficult choice to make about how we will rely on BPA to help provide electricity for customers during those moments of extremely high demand.”

About the Eugene Water & Electric Board

The Eugene Water & Electric Board is Oregon’s largest customer-owned utility. Founded in 1911, EWEB provides water and electricity to approximately 96,000 customers in the Eugene-Springfield area. EWEB’s service area covers 236 square miles with a population of more than 200,000 people, including major institutions such as the University of Oregon.

A five-member elected Board of Commissioners governs the utility, which does not operate to earn a profit or to serve the investment needs of stockholders. Employing approximately 500 people, EWEB serves the people of Eugene by embodying core values of safety, reliability, affordability, environmental responsibility and community/culture.

EWEB owns four energy generation facilities, including hydroelectric projects on the McKenzie and Clackamas Rivers, and leads watershed protection measures with local landowners and environmental organizations. With one of the greenest energy supplies in the nation, approximately 90% of EWEB’s power comes from carbon-free sources, and EWEB is committed to achieving a 95% carbon-free energy portfolio by 2030.