UO faces tougher competition for California students

Presenter: Sharing an overview of future enrollment with the University Senate Nov. 19, Vice President for Student Services and Enrollment Management Derek Kindle: 

Derek Kindle: This will be a very difficult year in the enrollment landscape.

[00:00:14] The takeaway from what we call the funnel, the enrollment funnel is that we essentially have about 37% fewer applicants than our peers, and we’re admitting more of our applicants than our peers, between 11% and 33% more, and still yield 10% fewer students.

[00:00:32] So that just shows you the enrollment funnel crunch that the U of O is in and what we’re facing in Student Services and Enrollment Management.

[00:00:41] We are still improving in areas listed under the Oregon Rising goals, which is first-year to second-year retention as well as graduation rates, but we are still behind our peers, as many of you know, 8% lower in our retention rate, that’s first-year to second-year, and then 15% lower four-year graduation rate.

[00:01:00] I know on the Oregon Rising goals, we talk about six-year graduation rates. For my purposes, you’ll most likely just hear me talk about four-year, only because as an enrollment person, every student who approaches you believes that they will graduate in four years, and that’s exactly what they want to hear. And so I’ll continue to stick to the four-year graduation rate.

[00:01:19] There are some things that we’re really excited about within the division. And even though we are facing headwinds and challenges before us, we do have a strong and eager team. We do have a strategic plan that, particularly for those of us in enrollment, it’s clear, it’s value-centered, it’s doable.

[00:01:36] The brand, the UO brand is very recognizable. We’re not an upstart of a type of a brand. We’re not a smaller institution that has to do a lot for people to recognize who they are. And we have lots of untapped resources: alumni and supporters, but supporters include people like yourself. And they include other people on campus, in the Eugene community, in the community in Oregon, and quite honestly, around the world. All the people with whom you’ve interacted with, who have a positive impression of UO, are great supporters in the enrollment space.

[00:02:09] California in particular is a key market for the University of Oregon. It has been, particularly for our domestic nonresident students. We’ve depended largely on them and the West Coast in general. And that means that any changes that happen, ‘If,’ you know, ‘If there’s a cough in California, we catch the flu,’ I would actually say ‘pneumonia’ at this point.

[00:02:29] There are some things that we’re watching in California, particularly with the UCs, but also within our Big Ten peers that are a particular challenge to us.

[00:02:37] So the two things that we’re watching. One: the UC system. The number of residents on most of their campuses are increasing and have, which means the UCs will be admitting more California residents than they have in prior years.

[00:02:53] In addition, all of our Big Ten peers, and particularly the most competitive of them, are really honing in on California in the same market space and conditions that we are.

[00:03:03] And I’ll use an example from my previous employer. Oregon has about six regional recruiters in California. Wisconsin just started with two, two years ago, and their number of applicants from California far exceed that of Oregon who’s been in the marketplace for much longer.

[00:03:21] That’s just one example. And so those are things that we’re really looking into.

[00:03:26] I was on a call with my Big Ten peers on Monday. And one question, a sort of straw poll, was asked of the group, and that is: How many of you will be looking for more domestic nonresidents next year, even above perhaps what your state statute or what your historical trends have been with your makeup of residents and nonresidents?

[00:03:46] Every single member of the call raised their hands, and we only had two people who were not on the call of the 19 Big Tens.

[00:03:55] And so that is something that we’re really focused on, particularly in California. What this will mean is that we will not only continue to focus in California and double down in some areas, but we’ll be expanding our footprint in other areas that are of interest to us, and that will be outside of the West Coast.

[00:04:12] The other part of this is: The attention economy is even smaller. What students are paying attention to, how long they’re paying attention to it, means that we have very limited space.

[00:04:21] Many of you probably went to college around the time where you applied to between one and five institutions. Students who are applying to Oregon, students who are applying to Big Ten peers are sometimes applying to 20 institutions, which is a whole lot.

[00:04:37] So you can imagine that we are trying to carve out a moment where we can talk to students and we’re talking to them with very limited time.

[00:04:46] Presenter: Actions by the federal government are also having a big impact on the University of Oregon. Derek Kindle: 

[00:04:52] Derek Kindle: Many of you know the issues that are facing higher ed. Lots of you are going to be engaged more so on the research side, though the issues in higher ed are expansive.

[00:05:02] They’re also overnight changes in many cases, things that happen through executive actions or executive orders. Changes in how and where agencies report within the Department of Education are changing overnight. Student visa issues or our relationship with other countries are changing overnight. And that’s changing the perception for many students, even if or when visa issues are not immediately impacted.

[00:05:26] Those are some of the things that we’re concerned about.

[00:05:29] At a very practical level, student aid itself is a major concern for us. Many of you may have heard last year, in the last several years, big efforts to double the Pell Grant, and to expand other parts of federal student aid, particularly on the grant side. 

[00:05:47] That is not in the cards under the current Congress and administration, and in fact, what has happened through OB3 or One Big Beautiful Bill, or HR1, however you want to label it, are two very significant changes impacting our students and students across the country—at the undergraduate and graduate level.

[00:06:06] The first is that the parent PLUS loan, so that’s for undergraduate dependent students, currently there is no limit to the amount that families can borrow under the dependent PLUS loan program for parents. It will be limited in the future to $20,000 per year with a max of $65,000.

[00:06:28] For those of you who are really quick with math, you realize that $20,000 a year in four years should be $80,000. Your math is not off. You are correct. And the max amount is still $65,000.

[00:06:41] Our students are borrowing, typically, our domestic nonresidents are borrowing well over $20,000 per year and well over $65,000 in their lifetime at UO.

[00:06:53] Many of our students and families are using this as a first option, among other options, and a good set of our students are using this as the only option. And they’re using it as the only option because the credit check for the PLUS loans at the undergraduate and graduate level are only looking for adverse credit history.

[00:07:11] So unlike other consumer loans, they are not looking at a FICO score or other debt-to-income ratios. They’re only looking for adverse credit history.

[00:07:20] At the grad level, with the exception of the Law School, the grad PLUS loans will be eliminated moving forward after 2026. Now, the people who are in these programs now are grandfathered for the termination of their degree, but for grad PLUS loans, again, with the exception of Law, they’re going to be eliminated in the near future.

[00:07:40] What we’re hearing is that, you know, people are on the edge of their seats hoping that this will either be delayed or that there will be significant changes to this. That is a hope. That is not necessarily anything that we have an indication from, from Congress.

[00:07:55] Many of you know, the government just reopened. This is certainly not at the top of their list, despite how we might feel about it and what our students feel about it. But it’s something that we’re tracking closely.

[00:08:04] Presenter: He was asked if the expiring grad PLUS loan was considered supplemental, and if other loans would still be available. Derek Kindle:

[00:08:11] Derek Kindle: The graduate direct unsubsidized loan, they will still be eligible for. But remember, that is still a very limited loan dollar amount. This is what students usually exercise not only to round out tuition, but to pay for the rest of living expenses.

[00:08:26] For the students who are in Ph.D. programs that provide additional funding, you are correct. It’s supplemental. For students who are in professional master’s programs, etc., many of those are banking on this a whole lot more than, let’s say, Ph.D. students.

[00:08:40] There’s a particular vulnerability for students with families who are usually looking for this to help round out full living expenses, child care, and other things. That can happen at the master’s level, but it’s particularly impactful at the graduate level. 

[00:08:53] Our AVP and director of financial aid is meeting with graduate schools or programs, as well as the professional schools; just met with the University leadership team yesterday. We’ll be providing more information for impacted departments over time. But those are some of the key things that we’re looking for on the federal side.

[00:09:13] What we are also looking for as a division is a deep dive into our enrollment funnel. We’re looking at the strength of our applicant pool, where we might be able to focus or hone in really on the students we want first and most, and then align everything else that we do with that.

[00:09:27] That could be marketing. That could be things like financial aid. And so that’s some of the things that we’re working on, as well as engagement with high schools, high school counselors, alumni groups, community-based organizations, and others are what we’re going to focus on in the future to build up long-lasting relationships instead of just focusing on things that might be more short-term like, let’s say, an ad.

[00:09:50] So we’re really looking forward to engaging with students and families, coming up in the very near future.

[00:09:56] Presenter: The University faces tougher competition for California students, not only from the Big Ten, but also from the University of California system.